• 85.7% of Spanish substations are fully saturated and grid has lost nearly 2.8 GW in two months, according to latest analysis by Foro Industria y Energía and Opina 360.

  • Availability of grid access is becoming a key element of industrial planning, capable of reshaping investment geography and conditioning territorial competitiveness.

  • Not all available capacity translates into real opportunity: technical and locational factors limit effective use of grid.

  • Saturation is advancing at a faster pace than any reinforcement, even in regions that had previously acted as pressure valves.

16 January 2026

85.7% of Spanish substations are now fully saturated. According to latest analysis by Foro Industria y Energía (FIE) and Opina 360, electricity system has lost nearly 2.8 GW of available capacity in just two months, leaving much of national territory without technical margin for new projects.

Since last October, Foro Industria y Energía (FIE), in collaboration with Opina 360, has been periodically analysing map of access capacity of electricity substations in Spain with a clear objective: to offer an updated snapshot of distribution grid that allows understanding of extent to which electrical infrastructure is conditioning—or directly limiting—industrial deployment in context of energy transition.

In this new update, referring to 1 December 2025, study has expanded its scope to 6,108 substations (compared to 6,023 analysed in October) belonging to 29 largest distributors in country, grouping 97% of supply points. Result is an increasingly strained grid. Saturation index has risen from 82.4% to 85.7%, meaning that 5,235 substations now have no available capacity. In terms of power, decline is equally significant: from just over 10 GW available in October, system now has 7,363.2 MW. Loss of more than 2.7 GW of available capacity in two months shows that electrification demand and new industrial projects are consuming grid at a much faster rate than it is being reinforced.

Beyond aggregated figure, new analysis by Foro Industria y Energía and Opina 360 depicts a scenario of growing “stress” in grid access, where room for manoeuvre is shrinking and connection capacity is becoming an increasingly decisive factor for industrial planning. In this context, energy transition in Spain is not only about adding new renewable generation, but increasingly about grid’s ability to absorb and deliver that energy where industry needs it.

Eight provinces at 100% saturation and three regions on brink of collapse

Territorial analysis of substation capacity map confirms an increasingly marked pattern of structural saturation across large areas of country, particularly in north and centre of peninsula. Basque Country remains autonomous community with highest level of saturation, reaching 99.8%, followed closely by Navarre and La Rioja, both at 99.2%.

At provincial level, saturation is not uniform, but several regions have reached maximum levels. Eight provinces already show 100% saturation, with no available capacity at any of their substations: Almería, Málaga, Zaragoza, Albacete, Guadalajara, Salamanca, Álava and Biscay. In these territories, deployment of new electric industrial projects faces a purely technical limitation, regardless of other usually decisive factors such as land availability, taxation or regulatory framework.

Contrast with few areas that still retain some margin is striking. Of 50 provinces analysed, only six maintain more than 50% of substations with available capacity: Balearic Islands (50%), Ourense (52.2%), Pontevedra (58.3%), Las Palmas (59.3%), Asturias (63.7%) and Lugo (78.9%). Even in these cases, as will be explored, data require a cautious reading, as part of available capacity is subject to additional technical constraints or future reviews by distributors.

This territorial map reflects not only a saturation problem, but a progressive displacement of industrial opportunity towards very specific enclaves where there is still room for electricity demand. As repeatedly pointed out by Foro Industria y Energía, availability of grid access is consolidating as a key element of industrial planning, capable of reshaping investment geography and conditioning territorial competitiveness.

Mirage of data: why capacity is not always opportunity

Although most of Spain faces a highly saturated electricity grid, some regions and provinces still retain a certain margin for new projects. However, these figures require nuance: availability does not always translate into effective capacity for industry.

In terms of available megawatts, Galicia leads regional ranking with 1,720.8 MW, followed by Catalonia (1,024 MW) and Andalusia (870.5 MW). At provincial level, Lugo (1,273.4 MW), Barcelona (801.3 MW) and Asturias (698.2 MW) stand out.

Nevertheless, these numbers hide important caveats. In Lugo, part of available capacity is conditioned by update of Boimente 400 node, a critical point in transmission grid that regulates power reaching certain substations in province. Until reference value of this node is updated, it cannot be guaranteed that Lugo’s theoretical capacity is truly available for new industrial projects.

In Barcelona, although city shows 801 MW of apparent capacity and 70.7% saturation, much of this capacity is located in historic urban areas designed for factories that no longer exist, such as Damm or España Industrial. As highlighted by Albert Concepción, president of Foro Industria y Energía, during event “Keys to security of supply in Catalonia” organised by Foment del Treball, there is a clear mismatch between connection supply and current industrial demand, concentrated in peripheral industrial estates with greater access difficulties.

This geographical mismatch demonstrates that number of available megawatts does not always equate to real opportunity for industry. Spanish grid, in many cases, still responds to industrial logic of 20th century, while today’s industry requires flexibility, strategic distribution and grid planning aligned with location of productive activity.

Unstoppable saturation: almost all regions lose available capacity

What is most worrying about latest data is speed at which grid capacity is being exhausted, with saturation advancing faster than any reinforcement or replacement. Even territories that previously acted as pressure valves are seeing their margin shrink rapidly. Comparison with October shows a generalised increase in saturation and a significant loss of available megawatts.

Regions such as Asturias, Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Castilla-La Mancha have recorded notable increases in saturation levels in just two months: Asturias from 26.1% to 36.3%, Balearic Islands from 38.6% to 50%, Canary Islands from 32.6% to 60.9%. Castilla-La Mancha has risen from 85.3% to 93.4%. At same time, all regions have lost available capacity except Extremadura (+2.2 MW) and Galicia (+54.6 MW), both modest increases compared to general decline. Largest absolute losses are concentrated in Andalusia (-680.9 MW), Madrid (-455.1 MW) and Valencian Community (-326.5 MW).

Among exceptions, Galicia maintains largest absolute margin with 1,720.8 MW, followed by Catalonia (1,024 MW) and Andalusia (870.5 MW). However, as shown in previous section, internal availability is not homogeneous and effective capacity may be limited by technical and locational factors, as illustrated by cases of Lugo and Barcelona.

Implications for industry: from “where should I locate?” to “where can I locate?”

December data confirm a paradigm shift: electricity availability has ceased to be a basic service and has become an exclusionary factor for investment. Today, question for a company is no longer “where is it convenient to locate?”, but “where can I connect?”. With nearly 86% of substations saturated and almost 3 GW of capacity lost in just two months, Spain faces a structural limitation that threatens to freeze industrial map. Competitiveness is no longer measured only by talent or logistics, but by existence of real “plugs” in economically meaningful nodes.

This acceleration in saturation is a warning about urgency of strategic planning adapted to 21st century. If grid continues to respond to an industrial geography of past, window of opportunity for green reindustrialisation will close earlier than expected due to pure technical suffocation. Interactive map updated with December data, developed by FIE and Opina 360, consolidates itself as a critical tool for companies and administrations navigating a scenario where energy management is no longer an efficiency option, but a sine qua non condition for industrial development.